Risk stratification by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing improves outcomes following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery : a cohort study

Background: In 2009, the NHS evidence adoption center and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) published a review of the use of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). They recommended the development of a risk-assessment tool to help identify AAA patients with greater or lesser risk of operative mortality and to contribute to mortality prediction. A low anaerobic threshold (AT), which is a reliable, objective measure of pre-operative cardiorespiratory fitness, as determined by pre-operative cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is associated with poor surgical outcomes for major abdominal surgery. We aimed to assess the impact of a CPET-based risk-stratification strategy upon perioperative mortality, length of stay and non-operative costs for elective (open and endovascular) infra-renal AAA patients. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was undertaken. Pre-operative CPET-based selection for elective surgical intervention was introduced in 2007. An anonymized cohort of 230 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2007 to 2011) was studied. A historical control group of 128 consecutive infra-renal AAA patients (2003 to 2007) was identified for comparison. Comparative analysis of demographic and outcome data for CPET-pass (AT ≥ 11 ml/kg/min), CPET-fail (AT < 11 ml/kg/min) and CPET-submaximal (no AT generated) subgroups with control subjects was performed. Primary outcomes included 30-day mortality, survival and length of stay (LOS); secondary outcomes were non-operative inpatient costs. Results: Of 230 subjects, 188 underwent CPET: CPET-pass n = 131, CPET-fail n = 35 and CPET-submaximal n = 22. When compared to the controls, CPET-pass patients exhibited reduced median total LOS (10 vs 13 days for open surgery, n = 74, P < 0.01 and 4 vs 6 days for EVAR, n = 29, P < 0.05), intensive therapy unit requirement (3 vs 4 days for open repair only, P < 0.001), non-operative costs (£5,387 vs £9,634 for open repair, P < 0.001) and perioperative mortality (2.7% vs 12.6% (odds ratio: 0.19) for open repair only, P < 0.05). CPET-stratified (open/endovascular) patients exhibited a mid-term survival benefit (P < 0.05). Conclusion: In this retrospective cohort study, a pre-operative AT > 11 ml/kg/min was associated with reduced perioperative mortality (open cases only), LOS, survival and inpatient costs (open and endovascular repair) for elective infra-renal AAA surgery

Reduced functional measure of cardiovascular reserve predicts admission to critical care unit following kidney transplantation

Background: There is currently no effective preoperative assessment for patients undergoing kidney transplantation that is able to identify those at high perioperative risk requiring admission to critical care unit (CCU). We sought to determine if functional measures of cardiovascular reserve, in particular the anaerobic threshold (VO2AT) could identify these patients. Methods: Adult patients were assessed within 4 weeks prior to kidney transplantation in a University hospital with a 37-bed CCU, between April 2010 and June 2012. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET), echocardiography and arterial applanation tonometry were performed. Results: There were 70 participants (age 41.7614.5 years, 60% male, 91.4% living donor kidney recipients, 23.4% were desensitized). 14 patients (20%) required escalation of care from the ward to CCU following transplantation. Reduced anaerobic threshold (VO2AT) was the most significant predictor, independently (OR = 0.43; 95% CI 0.27–0.68; p,0.001) and in the multivariate logistic regression analysis (adjusted OR = 0.26; 95% CI 0.12–0.59; p = 0.001). The area under the receiveroperating- characteristic curve was 0.93, based on a risk prediction model that incorporated VO2AT, body mass index and desensitization status. Neither echocardiographic nor measures of aortic compliance were significantly associated with CCU admission. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first prospective observational study to demonstrate the usefulness of CPET as a preoperative risk stratification tool for patients undergoing kidney transplantation. The study suggests that VO2AT has the potential to predict perioperative morbidity in kidney transplant recipients

The Fundamental Diagram of Pedestrian Movement Revisited

The empirical relation between density and velocity of pedestrian movement is not completely analyzed, particularly with regard to the `microscopic' causes which determine the relation at medium and high densities. The simplest system for the investigation of this dependency is the normal movement of pedestrians along a line (single-file movement). This article presents experimental results for this system under laboratory conditions and discusses the following observations: The data show a linear relation between the velocity and the inverse of the density, which can be regarded as the required length of one pedestrian to move. Furthermore we compare the results for the single-file movement with literature data for the movement in a plane. This comparison shows an unexpected conformance between the fundamental diagrams, indicating that lateral interference has negligible influence on the velocity-density relation at the density domain $1 m^{-2}<\rho<5 m^{-2}$. In addition we test a procedure for automatic recording of pedestrian flow characteristics. We present preliminary results on measurement range and accuracy of this method.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figure

Developing standard pedestrian-equivalent factors: passenger car–equivalent approach for dealing with pedestrian diversity

Similar to vehicular traffic, pedestrians, despite having diverse capabilities and body sizes, can be classified as heterogeneous. The use of vehicular traffic resolves the diversity issue with a conversion of heterogeneous vehicle flow into an equivalent flow with the use of passenger car–equivalent (PCE) factors. Analysis of pedestrian flow has yet to incorporate pedestrian diversity analysis implicitly into the design of pedestrian facilities, although some form of adjustment has been suggested. This paper introduces the concept of PCE-type factors for mixed pedestrian traffic called standard pedestrian-equivalent (SPE) factors. Estimates of SPE factors are made relative to the average commuter. The equivalent total travel time approach for PCE estimation was adapted to consider the effects of the differences in physical and operational characteristics of pedestrians, particularly walking speed and body size. Microsimulation of pedestrians was employed to evaluate hypothetical pedestrian proportions so as to generate corresponding flow relationships. Walking speeds and body sizes were varied across different flow conditions, walkway widths, and proportions of other pedestrian types. The first part of this paper explores how the two pedestrian characteristics (walking speed and body size) influence estimated SPE factors. The second part is a case study in which field-collected data illustrate SPE factors calculated for older adults, obese pedestrians, and their combination. An application of SPE factors demonstrates the robustness of the methodology in bridging the gap between pedestrian compositions and planning practice

Traffic Instabilities in Self-Organized Pedestrian Crowds

In human crowds as well as in many animal societies, local interactions among individuals often give rise to self-organized collective organizations that offer functional benefits to the group. For instance, flows of pedestrians moving in opposite directions spontaneously segregate into lanes of uniform walking directions. This phenomenon is often referred to as a smart collective pattern, as it increases the traffic efficiency with no need of external control. However, the functional benefits of this emergent organization have never been experimentally measured, and the underlying behavioral mechanisms are poorly understood. In this work, we have studied this phenomenon under controlled laboratory conditions. We found that the traffic segregation exhibits structural instabilities characterized by the alternation of organized and disorganized states, where the lifetime of well-organized clusters of pedestrians follow a stretched exponential relaxation process. Further analysis show that the inter-pedestrian variability of comfortable walking speeds is a key variable at the origin of the observed traffic perturbations. We show that the collective benefit of the emerging pattern is maximized when all pedestrians walk at the average speed of the group. In practice, however, local interactions between slow- and fast-walking pedestrians trigger global breakdowns of organization, which reduce the collective and the individual payoff provided by the traffic segregation. This work is a step ahead toward the understanding of traffic self-organization in crowds, which turns out to be modulated by complex behavioral mechanisms that do not always maximize the group's benefits. The quantitative understanding of crowd behaviors opens the way for designing bottom-up management strategies bound to promote the emergence of efficient collective behaviors in crowds.Comment: Article published in PLoS Computational biology. Freely available here: http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.100244

Feasibility of trial procedures for a randomised controlled trial of a community based group exercise intervention for falls prevention for visually impaired older people: the VIOLET study

Background Visually impaired older people (VIOP) have a higher risk of falling than their sighted peers, and are likely to avoid physical activity. The aim was to adapt the existing Falls Management Exercise (FaME) programme for VIOP, delivered in the community, and to investigate the feasibility of conducting a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT) of this adapted intervention. Methods Two-centre randomised mixed methods pilot trial and economic evaluation of the adapted group-based FaME programme for VIOP versus usual care. A one hour exercise programme ran weekly over 12 weeks at the study sites (Newcastle and Glasgow), delivered by third sector (voluntary and community) organisations. Participants were advised to exercise at home for an additional two hours over the week. Those randomised to the usual activities group received no intervention. Outcome measures were completed at baseline, 12 and 24 weeks. The potential primary outcome was the Short Form Falls Efficacy Scale – International (SFES-I). Participants’ adherence was assessed by reviewing attendance records and self-reported compliance to the home exercises. Adherence with the course content (fidelity) by instructors was assessed by a researcher. Adverse events were collected in a weekly phone call. Results Eighteen participants, drawn from community-living VIOP were screened; 68 met the inclusion criteria; 64 participants were randomised with 33 allocated to the intervention and 31 to the usual activities arm. 94% of participants provided data at the 12 week visit and 92% at 24 weeks. Adherence was high. The intervention was found to be safe with 76% attending nine or more classes. Median time for home exercise was 50 min per week. There was little or no evidence that fear of falling, balance and falls risk, physical activity, emotional, attitudinal or quality of life outcomes differed between trial arms at follow-up. Conclusions The intervention, FaME, was implemented successfully for VIOP and all progression criteria for a main trial were met. The lack of difference between groups on fear of falling was unsurprising given it was a pilot study but there may have been other contributory factors including suboptimal exercise dose and apparent low risk of falls in participants. These issues need addressing for a future trial

Enhanced empirical data for the fundamental diagram and the flow through bottlenecks

In recent years, several approaches for modelling pedestrian dynamics have been proposed and applied e.g. for design of egress routes. However, so far not much attention has been paid to their 'quantitative' validation. This unsatisfactory situation belongs amongst others on the uncertain and contradictory experimental data base. The fundamental diagram, i.e. the density-dependence of the flow or velocity, is probably the most important relation as it connects the basic parameter to describe the dynamic of crowds. But specifications in different handbooks as well as experimental measurements differ considerably. The same is true for the bottleneck flow. After a comprehensive review of the experimental data base we give an survey of a research project, including experiments with up to 250 persons performed under well controlled laboratory conditions. The trajectories of each person are measured in high precision to analyze the fundamental diagram and the flow through bottlenecks. The trajectories allow to study how the way of measurement influences the resulting relations. Surprisingly we found large deviation amongst the methods. These may be responsible for the deviation in the literature mentioned above. The results are of particular importance for the comparison of experimental data gained in different contexts and for the validation of models.Comment: A contribution to: Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2008 (Springer) 12 pages, 7 figure

Acute Renal Failure in Association with Community-Acquired Clostridium difficile Infection and McKittrick-Wheelock Syndrome

We report the case of a 65-year-old Caucasian woman who experienced two separate episodes of acute renal failure within an 18-month period, both requiring emergency admission and complicated treatment. Each episode was precipitated by hypovolaemia from intestinal fluid losses, but from two rare and independent pathologies. Her first admission was attributed to community-acquired Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhoea (CDAD) and was treated in the intensive therapy unit. She returned 18 months later with volume depletion and electrolyte disturbances, but on this occasion a giant hypersecretory villous adenoma of the rectum (McKittrick-Wheelock syndrome) was diagnosed following initial abnormal findings on digital rectal examination by a junior physician. Unlike hospital-acquired C. difficile, community-acquired infection is not common, although increasing numbers are being reported. Whilst community-acquired CDAD can be severe, it rarely causes acute renal failure. This case report highlights the pathological mechanisms whereby C. difficile toxin and hypersecretory villous adenoma of the rectum can predispose to acute renal failure, as well as the values of thorough clinical examination in the emergency room, and early communication with intensivist colleagues in dire situations

Pedestrian, Crowd, and Evacuation Dynamics

This contribution describes efforts to model the behavior of individual pedestrians and their interactions in crowds, which generate certain kinds of self-organized patterns of motion. Moreover, this article focusses on the dynamics of crowds in panic or evacuation situations, methods to optimize building designs for egress, and factors potentially causing the breakdown of orderly motion.Comment: This is a review paper. For related work see http://www.soms.ethz.c

Pain assessment for people with dementia: a systematic review of systematic reviews of pain assessment tools.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence of under-detection and poor management of pain in patients with dementia, in both long-term and acute care. Accurate assessment of pain in people with dementia is challenging and pain assessment tools have received considerable attention over the years, with an increasing number of tools made available. Systematic reviews on the evidence of their validity and utility mostly compare different sets of tools. This review of systematic reviews analyses and summarises evidence concerning the psychometric properties and clinical utility of pain assessment tools in adults with dementia or cognitive impairment. METHODS: We searched for systematic reviews of pain assessment tools providing evidence of reliability, validity and clinical utility. Two reviewers independently assessed each review and extracted data from them, with a third reviewer mediating when consensus was not reached. Analysis of the data was carried out collaboratively. The reviews were synthesised using a narrative synthesis approach. RESULTS: We retrieved 441 potentially eligible reviews, 23 met the criteria for inclusion and 8 provided data for extraction. Each review evaluated between 8 and 13 tools, in aggregate providing evidence on a total of 28 tools. The quality of the reviews varied and the reporting often lacked sufficient methodological detail for quality assessment. The 28 tools appear to have been studied in a variety of settings and with varied types of patients. The reviews identified several methodological limitations across the original studies. The lack of a 'gold standard' significantly hinders the evaluation of tools' validity. Most importantly, the samples were small providing limited evidence for use of any of the tools across settings or populations. CONCLUSIONS: There are a considerable number of pain assessment tools available for use with the elderly cognitive impaired population. However there is limited evidence about their reliability, validity and clinical utility. On the basis of this review no one tool can be recommended given the existing evidence